Poland's mortgage market:
Increases and decreases in April 2024
Poland's mortgage market saw a significant increase in April 2024, with the value of granted housing loans rising by 93.2% year-on-year, reaching 6.77 billion PLN, according to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK). However, compared to March 2024, there was a decrease in both the number and value of loans taken.
BIK Data: Year-to-Date Increases
Since the beginning of the year, the value of granted loans has increased by 204.4% to 33.93 billion PLN. Despite this, April saw a 12.1% drop compared to March. The number of housing loans also increased by 66.8% compared to April 2023, but fell by 11.5% month-on-month to 16.4 thousand. Year-to-date, the number of loans rose by 150.3% to 81.7 thousand.
Factors Influencing Creditworthiness
"The continued high sales compared to the first half of last year are due to higher creditworthiness, primarily driven by a real wage increase (about 10%) and the stabilization of interest rates at approximately 1.0 percentage point lower than last year," BIK reported. In April, the average loan amount was 413.1 thousand PLN, 15.8% higher than the previous year.
Declines Compared to Record Months
In April 2024, compared to the record-breaking January, the value of granted mortgages fell by about 3.53 billion PLN. The lack of new applications from last year's "Credit 2%" program was also evident in the number of people applying for housing loans – 32.36 thousand in April compared to 46.34 thousand in December 2023.
Future Projections
Until the new "Housing Start" program is launched, further declines in lending activity are expected in the coming months. "We estimate that the lack of a program could reduce lending activity by approximately 4-4.5 billion PLN compared to January this year. However, this decline could be partially offset by housing loans taken by people who, due to rising property prices, will accelerate their decision to take out a loan and are ineligible for the new program. The emergence of the new government program could stimulate property price increases," BIK added.
PAP, tvn24